Violent Street Crime, Globalization, and Ice Cream

In the realm of criminology and health research, unexpected findings often challenge preconceived notions. A notable example is the research by Andres Korat, which found that among diabetics, consuming half a cup of ice cream daily was linked to a lower risk of heart problems. Despite initial skepticism, repeated analyses confirmed these results, aligning with earlier studies by Mark Pereira and others that suggested ice cream might prevent insulin-resistance syndrome, a precursor to diabetes. However, these findings have been downplayed in favor of promoting low-fat dairy products, highlighting a reluctance to embrace unexpected results. Similar examples can be found in criminology. For example, in research with Greg Midgette on the death of Freddie Gray in Baltimore in 2015 we set out to study the effects of police legitimacy on crime rates. Contrary to our expectations, the incident led to increased 911 calls and violent crime rates, particularly in predominantly in poor neighborhoods, challenging assumptions about community-police relations.

In another project, Bo Jiang and I looked into the broader implications of globalization on crime rates. While globalization has been criticized for increasing inequality and poverty, we found that it may actually reduce crime rates by improving living standards and government efficiency. This aligns with historical arguments that trade and commerce can have a civilizing effect, reducing interpersonal violence. The research underscores the need for openness to unexpected findings, as ignoring them can have significant social policy implications. For instance, downplaying the rise in violent crimes following the Freddie Gray case minimizes its impact on economically disadvantaged neighborhoods. Similarly, acknowledging the potential benefits of globalization could inform policies that address poverty and inequality while reducing crime.