Analyzing Military Interventions and Insecurity in Amhara National Regional State of Ethiopia: Insights from Custodian Theory
Based on:
Blog Post (2025)
Analyzes why Ethiopia’s military intervention in the Amhara region has failed to restore peace, using custodian theory to explore the impact of the 1995 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia’s (FDRE) constitution on ongoing conflict and insecurity.
Brief by:
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This piece employs custodian theory to analyze why Ethiopia’s military intervention in the Amhara region has failed to restore peace.
Key findings
The FDRE constitution's exclusion of the Amhara ethnic group has fueled ongoing conflict and insecurity in the Amhara region.
Evidence
The 1995 FDRE constitution, which employs ethnic federalism, was ratified without representation from the Amhara ethnic group. This exclusion has led to the Amhara being subjected to ethnic cleansing and genocide, with the constitution seen as a source of insecurity. The Amhara ethnic group has protested and rebelled against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration, viewing the constitution as a threat to their existence.
What it means
The exclusion of the Amhara ethnic group from the constitutional process has contributed to their marginalization and vulnerability to violence, underscoring the need for constitutional reform to ensure inclusive representation and address ethnic tensions.
Military intervention in the Amhara region has failed to restore peace and has instead intensified the conflict.
Evidence
Since 2018, the FDRE military has intervened in the ANRS to uphold the constitution and protect rights. However, this intervention has faced objections and escalated the conflict, as the Amhara ethnic group does not trust the 1995 FDRE constitution. The military's role as a defender of the constitution has led to increased violence and resistance from the community.
What it means
The military's inability to bring security highlights the limitations of using force to address constitutional and ethnic grievances, emphasizing the need for political solutions and constitutional amendments.
The custodian theory provides a framework for understanding the challenges of military intervention in contexts of constitutional illegitimacy.
Evidence
Custodian theory posits that military intervention occurs when a constitution is at risk, with the military acting as a protector of constitutional order. However, if the constitution is perceived as exclusive, the military's efforts may exacerbate insecurity. In the Amhara region, the FDRE military's intervention has been ineffective due to the constitution's lack of legitimacy and representation for the Amhara ethnic group.
What it means
The application of custodian theory to the Ethiopian context illustrates the importance of constitutional legitimacy and inclusive representation in achieving security and stability.
Proposed action
Constituional
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Analyzing Military Interventions and Insecurity in Amhara National Regional State of Ethiopia: Insights from Custodian Theory
Cite this brief: Dagnew, Agenagn. 'Analyzing Military Interventions and Insecurity in Amhara National Regional State of Ethiopia: Insights from Custodian Theory'. Acume. https://www.acume.org/r/analyzing-military-interventions-and-insecurity-in-amhara-national-regional-state-of-ethiopia-insights-from-custodian-theory/
Brief created by: Professor Agenagn Dagnew | Year brief made: 2025
Original research:
- Dagnew, A., Analyzing Military Interventions and Insecurity in Amhara National Regional State of Ethiopia: Insights from Custodian Theory https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/07/04/analyzing-military-interventions/. – https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/07/04/analyzing-military-interventions/
Research brief:
Analyzes why Ethiopia’s military intervention in the Amhara region has failed to restore peace, using custodian theory to explore the impact of the 1995 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia’s (FDRE) constitution on ongoing conflict and insecurity.
This piece employs custodian theory to analyze why Ethiopia’s military intervention in the Amhara region has failed to restore peace.
Findings:
The FDRE constitution’s exclusion of the Amhara ethnic group has fueled ongoing conflict and insecurity in the Amhara region.
The 1995 FDRE constitution, which employs ethnic federalism, was ratified without representation from the Amhara ethnic group. This exclusion has led to the Amhara being subjected to ethnic cleansing and genocide, with the constitution seen as a source of insecurity. The Amhara ethnic group has protested and rebelled against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration, viewing the constitution as a threat to their existence.
The exclusion of the Amhara ethnic group from the constitutional process has contributed to their marginalization and vulnerability to violence, underscoring the need for constitutional reform to ensure inclusive representation and address ethnic tensions.
Military intervention in the Amhara region has failed to restore peace and has instead intensified the conflict.
Since 2018, the FDRE military has intervened in the ANRS to uphold the constitution and protect rights. However, this intervention has faced objections and escalated the conflict, as the Amhara ethnic group does not trust the 1995 FDRE constitution. The military’s role as a defender of the constitution has led to increased violence and resistance from the community.
The military’s inability to bring security highlights the limitations of using force to address constitutional and ethnic grievances, emphasizing the need for political solutions and constitutional amendments.
The custodian theory provides a framework for understanding the challenges of military intervention in contexts of constitutional illegitimacy.
Custodian theory posits that military intervention occurs when a constitution is at risk, with the military acting as a protector of constitutional order. However, if the constitution is perceived as exclusive, the military’s efforts may exacerbate insecurity. In the Amhara region, the FDRE military’s intervention has been ineffective due to the constitution’s lack of legitimacy and representation for the Amhara ethnic group.
The application of custodian theory to the Ethiopian context illustrates the importance of constitutional legitimacy and inclusive representation in achieving security and stability.
Advice:
Constituional
- By amending the constitution and reorganize the government in a way that the representation and rights of Amhara are respected, the rights of citizens come first, majority rules are respected, and geographically-based cooperative federalism is valued.