Analyzes why Ethiopia’s military intervention in the Amhara region has failed to restore peace, using custodian theory to explore the impact of the 1995 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia’s (FDRE) constitution on ongoing conflict and insecurity.

Summary from the African Security Review (Taylor & Francis, Vol. 34, Issue 2):
This summary is based on the peer-reviewed research article titled “The Immediate Causes of the Amhara Fano Force’s Rebellion Against the Government of Abiy Ahmed.” The article critically examines Ethiopia’s deepening crisis since 2018, characterized by prolonged conflict, political instability, and widespread violence. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration has been arguing that it struggles to maintain national unity, particularly in the face of ongoing hostilities with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Wellega since 2018 and the devastating war with Tigrayan forces from 2020 to 2022.
Although the 2022 Pretoria Agreement officially ended active combat between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), it failed to resolve the deteriorating security situation in the Amhara region. The Amhara people continued to suffer from ethnic-based violence, targeted displacement, and mass killings—particularly in Oromia and the outskirts of Addis Ababa. Their demands over disputed territories, including Welkait and Raya, were ignored. Instead of protecting the region, the government moved to dismantle the Amhara Special Forces without neutralizing the TPLF threat or addressing the territorial disputes, deepening the sense of betrayal.
Additional grievances—such as the unresolved assassinations of Amhara leaders, the failure to supply basic resources like fertilizer, and controversial development schemes like Sheger City—intensified the discontent. These factors ignited open confrontation between Fano armed groups and the federal government.
The study urges international actors to intervene diplomatically. Without timely mediation, Ethiopia risks further disintegration with grave consequences for peace and stability in the Horn of Africa. The article calls for a negotiated settlement, drawing lessons from the Tigray peace process to support a durable resolution between the federal government and Amhara stakeholders.