There is a complex interplay between historical legacy and the more recent invasion of Iraq. The flawed way that new institutions were attempted to be built also contributed. There was very little planning by the Americans, and their attempts didn’t really work. When they disbanded everything, like the army, security apparatus, and parliament, people were left with a void. They reverted to what they knew: family, tribe, and sect. Groups were quick to fill the void.
People don’t trust their own institutions. Instead, they rely on alternative arrangements like family, extended family, tribes, or religious groups, but never the state. The lack of trust in the state and its institutions makes it difficult to have effective governance.
Over the past ten years, numerous militias have formed, and people have followed various groups and leaders. These groups often perform some functions that the state should be performing, like collecting taxes or providing healthcare.
We need someone to take the lead and be charismatic enough to have a single message that people can sign up to. In the current context, it’s hard to say who that person might be because the sectarian issue has become so ingrained over the past 20 years. If someone from the South who is Shiite has a popular message of change, would they be supported by the Sunni and Kurdish population, or vice versa?
It’s difficult to see anyone who can have a universal appeal in a place like Iraq. Someone can certainly emerge and gain popularity among certain groups, but it’s unlikely anyone can completely unify Iraq, as was the case in the 1958 revolution.
Back then, there were figures like Abdel Karim Qasim who were able to appeal to both Sunnis and Shiites and have a non-sectarian message of change. People at that time were so fed up with the monarchy that they supported him. For a number of years, he was very popular. However, a similar scenario doesn’t exist today because sectarianism has so much poisoned the political situation. But this is what’s needed to unify Iraq once again.